The Metals Company’s (TMC) August release marks a milestone in its history, as well as for the global marine minerals industry. The technical summary of the pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its NORI-D nodule project includes the declaration of mineral reserves, which is a first in the deep marine realm.
Located in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), the world’s largest known nodule field in the Pacific Ocean, NORI-D is a cornerstone of TMC’s ambitions. Alongside the PFS, TMC released an updated initial assessment (IA) for its other licence areas (NORI A-C and TOML A-F), outlining significant resource potential.
Nearly a million tonnes monthly
The company is targeting commercial production by late 2027, reaching 10.8 million tonnes wet nodules annually by 2031. The expected life of mine is 18 years.
The technical report declares 51 million tonnes (Mt) of probable reserves. Additionally, 274 Mt are pegged in the measured, indicated and inferred mineral resource categories, with 113 Mt potentially recoverable beyond reserves.
Annually, NORI-D is expected to produce approximately 97 kilotonnes (kt) nickel, 2.4 Mt manganese, 70 kt copper, and 7.4 kt cobalt, comparable to a medium-to-large land-based mine with costs in the nickel industry’s lowest 25 per cent (first quartile).
Capital-light approach
TMC’s lean, capital-light strategy with initial capital outlays of less than $550M, should appeal to investors.
The PFS outlines a phased approach, leveraging vessels and offshore operations by partner Allseas and initial onshore processing by Pacific Metals Company (PAMCO).
TMC plans to expand capacity through partnerships before investing over $4B in US facilities in the 2030s.
A $23B opportunity
The PFS projects an after-tax net present value (NPV, estimated future cash flow value today) of $5.5 billion for NORI-D, with a 27 per cent internal rate of return.
Additionally, the IA for TMC’s other licence areas (excluding NORI-D) indicates a potential 670 Mt of recoverable wet nodules, adding an after-tax NPV of $18.1B, bringing the combined economic potential to over $23B.
Rosy price assumptions
The studies are based on assumptions that may deviate, altering the actual outcome and project values.
Notably, the metal price estimates stand out as rather optimistic, with cobalt prices well above current levels.
While TMC states that the price assumptions are provided by third parties (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and CRU Consulting), mining companies typically use conservative commodity price assumptions in technical reports.
This is considered good corporate practice, and accounts for market volatility to ensure project viability under lower-price scenarios.
In TMC’s defence, a price sensitivity analysis shows NORI-D retains a solid NPV of around $4.9B, even with a 20 per cent decline in the price of either nickel sulfate and manganese, the two most sensitive metals in the NPV analysis.
Still, a corporate practice of using buoyant prices may leave some investors to question whether other aspects of the PFS are overly optimistic.
Icebergs ahead
Critics share these concerns. Iceberg Research, known for its activist approach and short-selling reports, sharply criticizes the PFS’s validity in its latest report.
The research firm highlights a 152 per cent surge in offshore costs and a 35 per cent cut in nodule production due to complex seabed terrain.
The PFS’s NPV calculation, which includes both reserves and resources, deviates from standard practice, inflating projections.
Iceberg also criticizes TMC’s above-market metal price assumptions, noting that its manganese output (13 per cent of global supply) could flood the market, thus depressing prices.
Using an 8 per cent discount rate, typical for lower risk land-based mines, the research firm believes 15 per cent better reflects deep-sea mining’s unprecedented risks.
Iceberg’s recalculated NPV, with conservative assumptions, yields a negative $1.5B, concluding: “The economics simply do not work”.
TMC’s plan to begin production in Q4 2027 depends on securing a commercial permit from US authorities. In its latest quarterly update, TMC reported that its US subsidiary received full compliance approval from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for its exploration applications, “reaffirming a clear regulatory process under the Deep-Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act”.
Despite widespread scepticism over TMC’s daring sidestep of the ISA, a recent $85M strategic investment from metals refiner Korea Zinc signals a vote of confidence. Furthermore, TMC’s stock price has soared in 2025, suggesting market belief in the company’s future.